STANDARD CHARTERED FORECASTS VIỆT NAM’S GROWTH FOCUS IN 2027, POTENTIAL STABILITY SHIFT IN 2028

The bank expects growth to remain in the double digits in early 2027, supporting household income and prospects for the consumer sector.

A seafood processing line at an export-oriented factory in Cà Mau, equipped with modern, energy-efficient technology and stringent food safety and quality control systems. — VNA/VNS Photo

HÀ NỘI — Standard Chartered forecasts Việt Nam’s GDP growth will reach 9.5 per cent in 2026 and 11 per cent in 2027, while raising its 2028 projection to 9.1 from 6.7 per cent, supported by fiscal and monetary policy, robust FDI inflows and stronger domestic demand, according to its latest report.

The bank expects growth to remain in the double digits in early 2027, supporting household income and prospects for the consumer sector. Disbursed FDI rose by 12 per cent year-to-date in the first nine months of 2026.

Tim Leelahaphan, senior economist for Việt Nam and Thailand at Standard Chartered, said: “We continue to see a commitment to strong growth in 2027, supporting prospects for domestic consumption and investment. Rebuilding reserves could strengthen Việt Nam’s external position and increase domestic liquidity.

"This would further support the domestic rates market and stabilise funding costs. While stability concerns do not appear to require an urgent response, growth ambitions are expected to be gradually balanced with a greater focus on stability."

Standard Chartered has raised its headline inflation forecasts to 4.7 per cent for 2026 from 4.4 per cent, and to 3.9 per cent for 2027 from 3.3 per cent. Inflation is forecast at 5.2 per cent year-on-year in Q4 2026 and 4.6 per cent in Q1 2027, before easing to 3.3 per cent in Q2 2027.

This would allow monetary policy to remain relatively accommodating. The bank has lowered its 2028 inflation forecast to 3.7 per cent from 5.5 per cent, anticipating gradual monetary tightening.

The refinancing rate is expected to be raised by 25 basis points to 4.75 per cent in Q4 2027, followed by a further 25 points to 5 per cent in Q4 2028. These moves would represent gradual policy normalisation, with growth remaining a priority well into 2027 and a greater emphasis on stability in 2028.

Foreign exchange reserves stand at approximately US$83 billion. The bank remains cautious about whether electronics exports will exceed imports of production inputs, but notes that these imports should ultimately support electronic products, which account for 30 per cent of total exports. — VNS

Source: VNS